Too Long for Twitter- November 6th

1. Claude Giroux has had a brutal start to the season, but I’m surprised at how many people have now decided that he’s not worthy of playing for Team Canada because of it. In the three seasons before this he put up 217 points in 207 games, he can play wing and center, he’s tough, he’s good on the PK, and he has 55 points in 50 career playoff games. Remember this shift against Pittsburgh in the playoffs? He actually skated by his own bench before he did and said “watch what I’m going to do.” But we’re not taking him cause of 14 bad games on a crap team? How is this real conversation? Giroux is a no-brainer to me.
2. Much like the Desharnais contract before it, I think the Habs made a mistake giving Emelin the money they did. And I like Emelin. He’s obviously really physical and he’s solid on the penalty kill, but he’s 27, has played two years in the league, and hasn’t averaged over 20 minutes of ice time so that makes him worth over $4million/year? At the very least, I think Emelin will play in their top four because he and Gorges are their only signed D-men (they’ll get Subban done; he’s an RFA), but he’s better suited to be a 4-5D, not a 3-4D. When are teams going to learn you don’t pay guys good money when they don’t up points?
3. Another player that falls under that category? Paul Gaustad. The Nashville Predators, of all teams, pay their fourth line center (Fisher, Cullen, Legwand are all ahead of him) $3.25M. I love trying to find good grinders that can be “glue guys” on your bottom lines, but it’s unbelievable how teams don’t focus on the talent portion of their roster first before trying to supplement it with grinders. Nashville can’t afford to pay their fourth line center that much. That’s the same money that Clarke MacArthur just signed for this summer.
4. It’s becoming more and more clear that the Oilers have to start trading some skill up front for some actual defensemen and/or goaltending. The crazy thing is that Hall, Eberle, RNH, Gagner, Yakupov, Perron, and Hemsky are players that are all cut from the same cloth if you know what I mean. It’s not like any of these guys are big, physical, excellent defensively or anything else; they are all simply skilled offensive players of varying degrees. The Oilers might challenge your defense, but they don’t challenge you in their own end and there’s no commitment on the back end to being a strong team and making the opposition work for their goals. Eakins basically said as much a few days ago talking about how his players loved to score but not play defense.
5. That said, the Yakupov talk reminds me of the Stamkos talk in his rookie season. Apparently, the Rangers actually agreed to a deal to bring him in that was nixed, but you get the point here. You don’t trade a kid before he’s barely even played in this league. Frankly, the Oilers should be trying to trade Eberle, or maybe Gagner. Obviously Hemsky too. Keep Yakupov, Hall, and RNH, and build around them.
6. And of course, now Yakupov is being linked to the Rangers. Sather tried to poach Stamkos as I just noted, and way back when he tried to steal Lecalvier from Tampa when he struggled early on. And those are only examples I know of. If Sather is trying to poach your young struggling player that you drafted first overall, that’s the seal of approval that he’s going to be a star.
7. I guess I’m in the minority here, and I’ll probably get ripped for it, but I really don’t believe the Lapierre hit on Boyle was THAT bad.  The bad hits from behind to me are the ones where a shoulder is driven through a guy’s back as he’s facing the other way. Boyle got to the puck first, which Lapierre knew was going to happen, and decided to turn the other way and reverse the play rather than try to chip it by Lapierre. Lapierre anticipated the chip and geared up to hammer Boyle but when Boyle reversed he kind of eased off and pushed him down.  He obviously made contact and it was stupid, but he didn’t make contact with the head and toss his head into the wall. The problem I find with a lot of these hits is that player’s anticipate the opponent is going to do something, but when they don’t they still finish the hit as if they did. Was it unnecessary? Yeah. Could it have been avoided once Boyle turned? I don’t think so Lapierre was going pretty fast. Could he have hammered him a lot harder? Yes. It was an unfortunate play, but I don’t think it was jaw dropping brutal.
8. In games featuring Dallas-Colorado and Nashville-Florida I saw icing plays in the dying minute where the winning team was protecting a lead, shot the puck down and the icing was waived off yet the defensive guy touched the puck first. That’s because the refs made subjective calls to keep the play alive. I don’t know how they fix that, but that’s a serious problem to me.  If a Canadian team got burned by that it’s all we’d hear about it. Look at the teams I mentioned when that happened.
9. If Moulson was a by-product of Tavares, the Islanders will win that trade. Otherwise, it was pointless because Vanek won’t score much more than what Moulson would have on the Isles (what, 40 goals by Vanek instead of 30 by Moulson?). So by that token they could have just traded the first and second round pick they tacked on in that deal for another legitimate goal scorer and kept Moulson.  One thing I will say about Moulson is that he reminds me of Heatley in terms of being a guy with size and a big shot but not a good skater, and we can all see how fast Heatley has declined. Heatley is two years older than Moulson.
10. Before the Leafs signed Mikhail Grabovski to his long-term contract that has since been bought out, they shopped him around to see if a trade was worthwhile. At the time, it was thought that the Leafs could have moved Grabovski to Chicago for Brandon Pirri and a draft pick. It was a trade I said I’d take at the time so Pirri has been someone I’ve monitored ever since to see how he progresses. He led the AHL in scoring last year and as of this writing he has 5 points in 10 games for the Blackhawks playing a little over 11 minutes a night. Something to monitor, I guess.
11. One last thing on the Leafs: If they are really looking to bring in a forward then they should be eyeing the Florida Panthers as a trade partner more than anyone else. Florida is open for business and has a bunch of center options the Leafs could get in on: Marcel Goc, Scott Gomez, Jesse Winchester, and maybe even Shawn Matthias (he hasn’t had a great start, so maybe Florida is finally fed up with him).  Most of those players won’t cost much and two of them are guys that can potentially help for years to come in Goc and Matthias.
12. I’m not sure where people get off talking about Brandon Saad playing on team USA just because he partners with Patrick Kane in Chicago. Here are USA forwards that are better than Saad: Kessel, JVR, Kesler, Pavelski, Ryan, Brown, Pacioretty, Backes, Stastny, Parise, Callahan, Wheeler, Stepan and the aforementioned Kane. That’s 14 right there.
13. Another American forward worth noting right now: Kyle Okposo. He’s playing with John Tavares and has 19 points in 15 games, but nobody is saying a word about this guy! He was compared to Jarome Iginla in his draft year and although he hasn’t become anything close to Iggy, maybe he’s finally starting to realize that potential a little bit. Okposo had 24 points (but only four goals) in 48 games last year, but then came up big in the playoffs with three goals and four points in six games.
14. At what point do we start taking Tampa Bay seriously? They are second in the East right now, but it’s worth noting they had a strong start last year too before falling fast. I said last season when Tampa got Ben Bishop that their tandem for this year reminded me of Reimer-Scrivens last year. The question is, is Bishop going to be a .925sv% goalie all year? Stamkos and St. Louis can score, Purcell can score, and Filppula has been an unbelievable acquisition so far. A few other things I question are: Is Alex Killorn seriously going to get the 70 points he’s on pace for? Sami Salo is in their top four; when is he going to inevitably get hurt?  Same goes for Ryan Malone who I’ve always like but just can’t seem to play a full season. Tampa will fight the question marks all season but they’ve had a hell of a start and have a great farm system. Maybe Yzerman does know what he’s doing?
15. Biggest difference I’ve seen in Dallas from the start of the season until right now (they started 2-3-0, and are 5-3-2 since): they’ve realized Dillon-Robidas are their best shutdown pairing, not Goligoski-Gonchar. They will be in tough to make the playoffs, but I love the direction of this team.

Too Long for Twitter- October 2nd

1.  I really enjoyed this interview with Mike Keenan, but one quote really stuck out and it was after he was asked who was the most difficult player he had to coach: “There’s always an interesting thing with Brett Hull. We’re buddies, friends. But he was an interesting player to coach. There are others, and people will know who they are. There’s no reason talking about them, because, for example, Joe Murphy was difficult, but people here wouldn’t even know who Joe Murphy is. Brett Hull had a mind of his own. He was very stubborn. A superstar, an excellent player, but very stubborn. He knew how he wanted to play.” I don’t think people realize how hard it is to co-exist with some of these superstars as a mere hockey coach- getting these guys to backcheck, block shots, sacrifice to make plays, etc. John MacLean and Ilya Kovalchuk with the New Jersey Devils comes to mind. Cory Clouston and Alex Kovalev in Ottawa does as well.
2. Dustin Penner is a healthy scratch to start the year in Anaheim after all he talked about in preseason was his bond with Getzlaf and Perry, hoping to prove himself, wanting to be marketable next year in free agency and all that. This is why so many people don’t put stock into quotes.
3. Yes the Flames got a first round pick in the Bouwmeester trade but it looked even worse than it originally did after the Flames waived Mark Cundari and he wasn’t claimed, along with Reto Berra not making the team. There’s no doubt the Flames needed to trade Bouwmeester to help push along their rebuild, but that doesn’t mean you trade a good defenseman for below market value. Bouwmeester had another year left on his contract and the Flames easily could have justified holding him and moving him at the draft or until an acceptable deal came along.
4. Conversely, the Blues traded Perron for Paajarvi in a bit of a cap move, but with the Morrow signing he might even struggle to get third line ice time. I count Roy, Backes, Steen, Stewart, Berglund, Oshie, and at least one of Schwartz/Tarasenko as top 9 forwards. Hitchcock also said Sobotka would be in the top nine but he said so before the Morrow signing, plus I’ll believe it when I see it due to their depth. The bottom line really is that the Blues traded a legit top six forward for a guy who will struggle to play in their top nine consistently. Imagine the backlash in Toronto or Montreal if the Leafs or Habs did that? Paajarvi was a healthy scratch to open the season.
5. Another move looking ugly right now? Martin Erat for Filip Forsberg. Erat started the season on a line with young players Tom Wilson and Michael Latta, and played only 9:01. He’s already questioning his role and while I don’t want to make this bigger than it is, the Caps traded a pretty promising player that they drafted 11^th overall for Erat so they better figure this out before it snowballs. The short-sightedness of the move is eerily similar to the Cody Eakin for Mike Ribeiro swap.
6. I have to give John Scott a little credit, at least he has a sense of humour. The day after the brawl he took a moment to say "No one is talking about the sick assist I got last night, the baby sauce pass in the middle." That’s pretty funny.
7. Varlamov stopped 59 of 62 shots in his two preseason games. This is not only a big year for him, but for new Avs goalie coach Francois Allaire who has been kicked to the curb a little bit the last few years with the fallout from Toronto. You can bet that if Varlamov has a good season it will be a bit of redemption for Allaire. In Colorado's season opener he stopped 36/37 shots.
8. One of the more honest things I’ve ever seen from John Tortorella came in his TSN interview with James Duthie where he said: “nobody came up to me and said 'you need to relax, you’re kicking the crap out of us.'” I thought that was so interesting and revealing. One- coaches can’t talk at players all the time, there needs to be a give and take. Two- players (presumably) can’t be too scared to go talk to the coach and tell him to tone it down; it’s a long season and it’s a grind, if you aren’t able to have an honest chat with the coach then something very wrong is happening. Three- Torts lost that dressing room and he knows it, so how will he change? Four- this might be the most important point, but it sounds like he is willing to change; I don’t care what he does with the media, it’s his relationship with the team that will push things for better or worse.
9. That said, I got a kick out of the media giving it Tortorella for being vocal about a phone going off during a press conference. Tortorella was right to do that. He, nor any coach, does not conduct these interviews for his livelihood. It’s not like coaches are looking forward to these things as it takes away time they could be using to make their teams better which is all any coach really cares about. In other words, Torts isn’t really doing those morning interviews for himself so the least you could do is show him some respect. Having your phone go off like that is just bush league, but all I heard other media members saying is “same old Torts.” How about “why does that goof not have his phone on silent?”
10. In the NFL teams rake over the waiver wire and spend arguably as much time watching their own guys, as they do others in preseason. I’m shocked the NHL isn’t the same. Luke Adam, Cory Emmerton, Adam Hall, TJ Brennan, etc. all went unclaimed. You can’t convince me not one team couldn’t afford to pick those guys (among others) up and stash them on their roster be it in the NHL or AHL.
11. I like hybrid icing and think it’s a great idea. One problem I can see happening is this: two players racing for a puck and the defensive guy begins to pull up around the faceoff dot because he’s expecting a whistle that never comes, and the offensive guy gets the puck making a play to score. Because it’s a judgement call you can see where the grey is in there. That said, utilitarianism rules apply here and it needed to be done.
12. I would have had Edmonton in the playoffs if it weren’t for these Gagner and RNH injuries to start the year. Even if they can survive them (looks like they won’t), it’s not as if once they return everything is okay either. There will be an adjustment period and those players will need to work themselves back into game shape to be able to bring it night in and night out. It’s a tough bounce for Edmonton and I hope they overcome it because they were –on paper—ready to take the next step this season.
13. If I’m picking an under the radar team that I think will make the playoffs, I would pick the New Jersey Devils. Last year they were good goaltending and a bit more scoring away from making it, and they addressed that this season with the Schneider acquisition plus forward additions. Their top six wingers –Jagr, Elias, Ryder, Clowe—have combined for the fourth most points as a group of top six wingers over the last two years, and then they added Damien Brunner just in case. I think their depth is underrated (Bernier, Zubrus, Carter, Josefson, etc. are all good players). Jersey led the league in shot differential last season, and while I think that’s a by-product of their system because they simply throw pucks on net from everywhere, I do think they are one of the best neutral zone teams in hockey and they bottle up the opposition with ease. Jersey is in a tough division, but I like them.
14. Jim Rutherford saying "If you really like fighting you should probably go to a fighting or wrestling match,” is pretty off-base considering he employs Kevin Westgarth who is strictly an enforcer. Look, I don’t really care where you stand on the fighting debate for this point all I’m saying is don’t be a hypocrite because you lose all credibility when you do. At least when Detroit speaks out on this we can all look and say “hey, they don’t employ one-dimensional enforcers.”
15. My award winning predictions for you all to rip on later:

• Hart- John Tavares
• Ross- Evgeni Malkin
• Norris- Erik Karlsson
• Vezina- Henrik Lundqvist
• Calder- Ryan Murray
• Selke- Patrice Bergeron
• Adams- Jack Capuano

Too Long for Twitter- September 13th

1. Paul Ranger has a lot of Leafs fan excited because of his teary-eyed camp interview, but hockey wise he said something extremely interesting and I’m just going to copy and paste the entire quote for you to read: “[People think talent is everything in sports, but] it’s not even close. There’s pieces to the puzzle for every athlete. A big part of it is obviously genetics, that’s a huge part … another big piece of that is fitness. I got that drilled into me when I was younger, in my early 20s, how that could take you to the next level and you could compete with the best players in the world. And the other part, which I think is the biggest part of the game, is the mental side. I think that’s the biggest side of life. Everyone has the power to do whatever they want, and that’s something that I’ve learned along the way. There’s all kinds of aspects to the game, and it’s interesting, because the mental side of the game is something that’s never really been talked about a lot, or trained. Self-esteem, just mental strength, courage … Some guys develop [it] without even knowing it; superstitions, rituals, stuff like that. It’s not talked about a lot. But it’s a skill.” 
2. I bring up that quote because this week I actually had the privilege of sitting in on a sports psychologist lesson with a Jr. A team and it was very fascinating stuff. As you’d expect, especially at that age (16-21 year olds, I believe), a lot of the players are pretty macho in their approach to it all but there was one part that got my attention. The psychologist was able to get the players to open up about their fears on the ice, and some of them were very honest about being scared to make mistakes because it’s embarrassing to do so in front of their fans, family, teammates, coaches, etc. Sure, Jr. A hockey is nothing to sneeze at, but on a good day teams play in front of a couple 100 people yet there they were being worried about being shown up in front of them. That really got me thinking about NHLers and making mistakes. If you play for the Leafs and screw up, you do so directly in front of 20,000 people, plus what has to be at least a couple 100,000 more on TV and highlight packs while you play for millions of dollars. That’s heavy stuff. That’s pressure every single day because nobody cares if you scored a hat-trick last week if you’re getting scored on regularly this week.
3.  When Chad Kilger was with the Leafs he was on the FAN590 (I wish I could find the link), and they asked him about being the fourth overall pick yet struggling to ever live up to that. He discussed how after being drafted, he made the Ducks, and when he was there that season the coaching staff really hammered away at him (Ron Wilson was the head coach but I don’t 100% recall whether he said it was Wilson specifically so I don’t want to blame him). Kilger discussed how the video of his game was shown to him after each and every game, about what he was doing wrong, and how he was being judged on such a miniscule scale that it weighed down on him and crushed his confidence. From there he said he only went downhill in his career. Kilger spent the majority of the next two seasons in the AHL (he was part of the Selanne deal at the end of his first year in Anaheim), before finally sticking with Chicago and carving out a career. Kilger was a serviceable NHLer at the end of the day, but if you look at his raw tools, he had it all: 6’4, can skate like the wind, has a bomb of a shot (recorded something like 105mph at the Leafs skills competition one year), and is physical, but it never came together for him. Kilger eventually (and abruptly) quit hockey for undisclosed reasons. He’s a great example of a guy who needed help with the mental side of hockey more than anything, and probably never got it.
4. Conversely, when Michael Grabner broke out with the Islanders confidence was all he talked about. “Beginning of the year, I kept making mistakes. Coaches explained it to me, showed me video and kept putting me out there. That gives you confidence as a player and you obviously don’t try to make the same mistakes again,” said Grabner. Then he went to the all-star game and won the fastest skater contest and he said that really brought his confidence to a whole new level because it showed him he’s basically the fastest player in the NHL. This is such a mental game and we barely even recognize it.
5. All the rage in hockey is analytics, but I’ll tell you this right now: Whoever can master how to work the mental side of hockey is really going to be the group that’s far ahead of everyone else. Every player has skill or some form ability because you don’t make the NHL if you don’t (fighters aside). It’s the mental side of things that really separate players apart.
6. Although this is about football, I really recommend reading this article on the Seattle Seahawks and what they do to manage the mental side of sport. I find this stuff extremely interesting because even at the minor hockey level I see coaches yell at players every single time they make mistakes, and it shouldn’t always be like that. You have to be able to communicate to each player on an individual level and find out what makes them tick.  
7. It’s very interesting to see Cody Franson and Jared Cowen still unsigned because I think it speaks to how hard it is to put a number on a defenseman. Yeah Derek Stepan is also an RFA, but Sather always plays hardball with his own guys so it’s not even a little surprising. It’s just extremely difficult to quantify a defenseman because it’s so important, there are so few spots for them, and it is a very complicated position. At forward, what it really comes down to is, if you’re a top six forward you’ll get paid according to your tier of production and how you stack up against others. If you’re a grinder you’ll get paid according to your role, how much ice time you can eat up, how effective you are and so on. It’s not exactly easy signing a forward, but it’s a lot easier than signing a defenseman. How much do you value points on the backend? Is he in your top four but not good enough to play against top competition? Does he play against top competition yet not excel there? How do you put a price on those numbers? Franson and Cowen, according to reports, seem very far apart from their team’s in terms of what numbers they should be getting.
8. I don’t know if this was intentional but as much as people think Nonis is backed into a corner, it’s really Franson that is. The Leafs will more than likely let Franson walk if he gets an offer sheet that would bring the Leafs a first and third round pick, and the only good teams that have the cap space to take that on without making a move right now are Ottawa (no money), and the Islanders (notoriously cheap). The Leafs are basically calling the bluff that no team will offer sheet Franson so that he has to cave because he won’t have any other options. Barring something unforeseen, it should work, and it’s a very smart strategy. As soon as Franson’s agents didn’t file for arbitration Nonis probably sat back and went “we are signing him on our terms now because he has no choice.” In the meantime, the Leafs buy some time for Morgan Rielly to get a long look. I don’t want to blow it out of proportion, and Nonis does have to get Franson locked up soon, but he kind of Walter White’d Kadri and Franson if he gets them both to sign cheap two year deals.
9. Considering it’s becoming a “thing” now to talk about how heavily involved analytics are in hockey currently, it was extremely interesting to see the Behind the B video of the Bruins deciding to trade Seguin. Seguin is a young star in the making on paper, but the Bruins conversation basically went along the lines of “he doesn’t play our kind of hockey or fit into our system.” They acknowledged he’s probably a 35-40 goal man, but what was important to them was playing “Bruins hockey.” Team culture is pretty well openly mocked on Twitter, yet here was one of the most successful team’s in hockey over the last few years discussing a huge move and the main sticking points seemed to be (and this is according to what they showed us), culture, team play, attitude, effort level, and so on. This isn’t being said to slag down on analytics because I’ve written about how they can play a role. I’m saying this to point out how extremely valuable some of the things that are laughed at and mocked on Twitter and blogs are. And, as outsiders, we only know so much information because we aren’t around the team or in the dressing room. There’s too much assuming that we know it all from behind our computer screens.
10. The second interesting thing from that video is how the Bruins believed they won the Kessel deal. Look, the Bruins won a Cup after trading Kessel so you can judge the deal narrowly all you want but you can’t say they’ve lost overall. What I question is this: If the Bruins had Kessel the last four years, are we talking about them as the elite team they are now, or a possible dynasty? Do they blow a 3-0 series lead to Philly with Kessel? Do they beat Chicago this year with Kessel? We’ll never be able to say for sure, but I’d rather have had Kessel in my line-up the last few years over Seguin because he’s better right now. So think about the Bruins having an elite player instead of a very good one during the last few seasons, and wonder what heights they might have been able to achieve. Did Boston still win that deal, or did they sell their team a little short on the current window they have right now for championships while Chara is still amazing?
11. Clarke MacArthur was quietly a very funny guy in Toronto, and so far this week he’s actually had the best line in the NHL. When asked if the Leafs can get over game 7 from last year, he responded “I hope not.” He burst out laughing afterward.
12. Six years ago the Sabres gave Derek Roy a six year deal worth $24 million hoping that it would become a steal. Buffalo ended up getting some years out of Roy and if he didn’t get so banged up (or had a falling out with Ruff), he might very well still be on the team. As it is, the Sabres ended up dealing him and the deal probably never worked out as great as they hoped it would. It wasn’t really a win or a loss either way; it was really just a decent deal. Six years later that deal must not have bothered Darcy Regier because he basically gave Cody Hodgson the same sort of move. We’ll see how this one goes.
13. Hockey Central noted that players such as Kronwall, Datsyuk and Zetterberg, along with head coach Mike Babcock, all lobbied Ken Holland for Cleary to be retained because he’s such a valuable guy on and off the ice. To me that is one of the greatest compliments you can receive as a player: the utmost respect from your peers and coaches. Detroit used to, and probably still does, have this motto that you take care of your top players, and your grinders, and if those guys are in place, the players in between will come together. Of course, the Wings used to revolve around the Yzerman’s and Fedorov’s, but they always had the grind line with the Draper’s and Maltby’s too.
14. It seems like the NHL very quietly shortened the length of goalie pads, as guys like Bernier and Niemi have had to reduce their pads by an inch (I’m sure there are more, but these are the two I know of). Niemi said that it’s all basically the same, except his five-hole is a little more vulnerable. Meanwhile, Bernier said that a few pucks have eluded him. I’ll be interested to see if there’s a noticeable difference in pucks trickling by goalies, especially through the five-hole. Might change the dynamic of the shootout a little bit more than expected. 
15. Wanted to wish happy retirements from the NHL to two excellent players in Tomas Kaberle and Miikka Kiprusoff. It really ticks me off when players of this ilk, whose play went from excellent to barely being able to keep up, receive a bunch of smart ass comments when they announce they are done by people on all mediums. Kipper might be the best goalie Calgary has ever had, and Kaberle was probably the Leafs best defenseman for a small era in their history regardless of it not being a great time in the franchise’s time. These were all-stars. I don’t want to go on some “show respect” rant, but recognize how great these players truly were. I know as a kid growing up in Toronto and playing defense, I wanted nothing more than to have Kaberle’s poise and passing ability, and I tried to play like him all the time. It was a privilege to watch you play, Kaba; and one of the greatest underdog Cup runs I’ve ever seen was led by you Kipper. Happy retirements, fellas.

Coach Stats vs. GM Stats

Last week the National Post published a story centered on the Leafs Jay McClement and in it McClement referenced some of the stats that the coaching staffs tracks and utilizes. After pointing it out as an interesting tool I received some replies that said it was basically a useless waste of time. I couldn’t disagree more. As someone who coaches hockey I consider some of the things the Leafs coaching staff tracks to be useful as a teaching mechanism for my players, and if I had access to those stats for my team I would use them all the time to breakdown plays, consistencies, weaknesses, strengths, etc.  The thing is, most of these stats are not great indicators of long-term sustainability with the ability to project the future well. Herein lays the key fact of the matter that there are differences between coaching stats and GM stats and those different stats have different values depending on your position and what you’re trying to achieve.

My goal here isn’t to breakdown all the stats and assign them labels as a “coach stat” or “GM stat;” what I’m really trying to do is discuss how stats have various strengths and weaknesses, and how they can help or hurt our judgement depending on how we are viewing the game.

A good place to start would be discussing the stats in question that the Leafs used. There were only two named and they were tracking turnovers-takeaway ratios, and tracking hitting location, both of which I’d say are fairly peripheral for a GM but can be important for a coach to use.

We already know how the Leafs breakdown turnovers, because they’ve told us. Carlyle records turnovers in three categories: 1- Guy is playing as an individual, 2- Offensive player takes chance 3- 'Brain-dead.’ What that really means when it comes to the Leafs tracking turnovers is that they want to erase “3.” You can show a player his CORSI and it will mean absolutely nothing and have no effect on his game whatsoever, but if you’re breaking down his turnovers with him maybe that leads to a swing of shots on net against, to a few more shots for.

A player such as Lupul, for example, is encouraged to try and create offense so while you of course never want to see him turn the puck over, it will obviously happen. As an offensive player you can live with him taking a chance, it not working, and losing the puck. If you don’t encourage him to try things he isn’t going to produce to his full capabilities. However, a player like Lupul has also been known to turn the puck over in his own zone and that’s the stuff you need to work with him on. If you tell a player he turns the puck over too much that’s not going to do anything, but if you sit with him and breakdown where he is making his mistakes specifically and what the problems are, you can use that to teach and instruct.

Furthermore, that turnover description can also be broken down through player roles. Yes the Leafs let Phil Kessel take chances (and again, I’m just using the Leafs as an example here but this applies to every team really), because he’s in a scoring role and that’s what they ask him to do. However, a player like Jay McClement is in a grinding role so the Leafs aren’t as comfortable with him falling under the “1” category. If McClement loses the puck once or twice a game because he’s tried to beat a defenseman one-on-one, that’s probably not acceptable because that’s not his role. I’d wager a guess that they would ask him to chip and chase, or pass the puck to the trailer, instead of deking.

Showing players the type of turnovers they make and what they can and can’t do is how you preach puck management. You can’t just show a player his possession stats and think that’s going to change anything; you need to look into what’s causing that and how you change that. Specifically breaking down turnovers is one way that can be done.

That takes us to tracking hits. Hits have some, little, or no value at all depending on your beliefs, but knowing where a guy is making his hits can be valuable in maximizing a player’s efficiency. Regardless of where you stand on the value of a hit, the ability to hit a guy, separate him from the puck, and retrieve it for possession is important and valuable for any player to have. If player X and player Y both throw 100 hits, and X has 25 hits that change possession while Y has 35, player Y is obviously more valuable physically and I’d like to see the breakdown of X’s hits to see why he’s being physical yet not able to change possession as much.  Although Dustin Brown is a much better player than Cal Clutterbuck, I would compare their hitting styles (as their hit counts are usually similar) and guess that Brown is much more effective at hitting on the forecheck and getting the puck versus Cal Clutterbuck who more so finishes a lot of his checks. As a coach you can’t just shrug and say “well I have Cal Clutterbuck who hits a lot but isn’t very effective at doing so to turn the puck over,” you actually need to try and find ways to maximize his skillset. That’s what good coaches do.

Basically, if I’m a GM am I taking a player who throws a lot of hits that don’t really do anything and hope he changes? No. But if I’m coaching said player because he’s already on my roster, it might (hopefully) be beneficial to track his hit location and try to coach him on how to better use his physicality. Because the Leafs are the team in question who use this stat, I would look at Nik Kulemin and suggest he’s excellent at hitting to get the puck back. The Leafs just brought David Clarkson in and he is a physical player, but if his hit totals aren’t leading to anything that changes puck possession, Nikolai Kulemin is a player that I would use as a model for him to try and use his physicality as (note: this is an example, not a fact; from what I’ve seen Clarkson is great at dumping the puck in and retrieving it physically).

A more appropriate example would be using hit location to track defensive positioning. If the opponent has the puck in the offensive zone corner, passes it off, and then the defenseman on my team goes out of his way to finish his check, he isn’t helping my team and more often than not he’s just putting himself out of position. It would be more appropriate (at least in my view), for the defenseman to locate where the puck is going and get into proper position rather than taking a few additional strides and seconds to finish that type of minimal hit.

There’s no doubt that this is a little thing, but if a coach get a forward who hits a lot to throw 20 more hits over the course of the year that cause a change in possession and that leads to say, two extra goals, while also showing his defensemen when to finish hits in the D-zone and when not to, and that leads to getting into position better and preventing three goals against that otherwise probably would have happened, then that’s a win. A coach can only use what he has –something that is too often forgotten online—so if he’s getting players to be just a little more effective than usual that’s a win.

A lot of the stats used on the internet now are rather ineffective for a coach to use. Are you going to tell a player he has a high or low PDO? What’s that going to change? If a player isn’t scoring but has a lot of chances, he knows to keep going because they will eventually go in. We hear players say that all the time, they don’t need to know their PDO. But should a GM understand that stat to help decide if a player had a career year? Yes. If you’re telling a player to cross the blueline and throw the puck on net to help his CORSI, that’s probably going to make him even worse and make his shooting percentage a wasteland. Yes these stats are sometimes able to help us predict the future, but in terms of using them to teach a player how to make adjustments and correct these stats in and of themselves, they really do just about nothing.

Even in Moneyball, we see the staff talking to players about things such as “if you take a first pitch strike, your batting average drops ___ for the rest of the at bat” versus telling a player “your OBP is too low, now you know, so change that.” Is OBP useful in baseball? Of course. Is it useful in terms of teaching a player how to self-improve though? Not really.

What it really boils down to is coaches use certain stats to cover the nuances of the game, and the GM uses overarching stats that look at the big picture to ask “what’s all this work really producing?” There are many ways to use analytics to help a hockey team and just because something doesn’t directly incorporate shot-counts or goal counts doesn’t mean it’s useless. Getting more shots and more goals is always the goal of anyone working in hockey, but part of the process is breaking down actual gameplay into singular events and seeing where improvements can be made.

This is why, I believe, many coaches are terrible GMs. Mike Keenan (Luongo trade) and Darryl Sutter (Phaneuf trade) immediately come to mind. Being a GM takes a certain mind frame where you always project the future, work within the parameters of the cap, juggle expiring veteran contracts with the rookies in your organization and so on. The best GMs are ones that can properly analyze and predict the future and when to buy low and sell high.

Whereas coaches look at players and see “I like this size in my line-up” or “I want that guy because he wins a lot of battles.” It’s a completely different thought process.

So next time you see an organization discuss how a stat they use, really take a second to consider how they might be using that stat before you instantly criticize it simply because you don’t agree with it. 

Too Long for Twitter- September 4th

1. Prior to this season Niklas Kronwall had 17 points in the 19 career games he had played in without Niklas Lidstrom. In his first full season without Lidstrom Kronwall threw up 29 points in 48 games which prorates to roughly 50 points (a point below his career high). No Lidstrom has translated into over a minute more of power play ice time per game than Kronwall is used to and that caused him to have his second highest power play point season behind that 51 point career year. Amazing what opportunity can do.
2. Went under the radar but it’s neat that days before the draft Preds GM David Poile said that if Seth Jones dropped to four he would take him, and that he’s the best player available in the draft. Lots of times after the fact we hear teams pump up their picks and say “we had him rated higher than where we got him,” but there was Poile saying it beforehand. The Preds have seven D under contract and don’t appear interested in signing any of the remaining UFA D-men so it will be interesting to see first round picks Ryan Ellis and Jones battle for ice time with fourth rounder Mattias Ekholm and undrafted Viktor Bartley. 
3. Was going through my twitter favourites and found this little gem courtesy dobber hockey: “Over last 3 yrs when Nathan Horton was out of lineup, Krejci had 29 points in 47 gmes (0.62).Otherwise he had 128 in 154 (0.83).” That doesn’t include playoffs. David Johnson also wrote a bit on Horton increasing his linemates shooting percentages.  Iginla figures to replace Horton and he’s been really effective as a scorer the last two years (100 points in 126 games), but how will Krejci, and Lucic, do without him?
4. After 48 games in the 2011-2012 season, Malkin led the league in scoring with 67 points. During the 48 game 2013 season Marty St. Louis won the scoring title with 60 points (which was what the 2011-2012 number two scorer, Giroux, had after 48 games). Stamkos had 32 goals at the 48 game threshold which was what Ovechkin won the Rocket with this season. Phoenix was the only team not to be in a playoff spot after 48 games and make it (then they went on a run to the conference finals). I don’t know how much stock to put into last year’s 48 game season, but it’s funny how it’s all pretty relative.
5. Found two tweets about 10^th overall pick Valerie Nichushkin from earlier in the year that I think are interesting. The first is "Talked to an NHL Euro scout today: "If Nichushkin isn't selected either first or second overall, it's only because of the Russian factor." The second is “I asked top Euro #nhldraft prospect Valeri Nichushkin how confident he is that he'll be playing in the NHL next yr- "100 percent sure." Those are two eyebrow raising things to say. If Nichushkin is what some from across the pond think he is, Dallas could have a formidable top six forward group with he, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Ray Whitney, Erik Cole and one of Rich Peverley or Cody Eakin. If he struggles this is the kind of thing scouts and management teams will remember that drop Russian’s stocks.
6. In 2007-2008 the Tampa Bay Lightning had 40% of their cap space tied into Lecavalier, Richards and St. Louis. If it weren’t for the Bobby Ryan trade the Ducks would have had 34% tied into Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan in 2013-2014. After this season the Penguins will have over $25 million committed to Crosby, Malkin and Letang. How long is that going to last? The Lightning and Ducks were both adamant that they weren’t going to break up their big three’s either, and each team had won Cups with pretty well all those guys (save for Ryan really) as key components to those Cups.
7. Of all things Leafs fans have complained about when it comes to Franson and Kadri being unsigned, I’m surprised not much has been made about the general thought process of the Leafs originally giving Franson a one year deal to begin with. Obviously hindsight is 20-20, but the Leafs gave Franson a one year, one million dollar deal right after the lockout and really made things tough on them more than anything. Even if you give Franson a little more money to make it a two year deal, he’s still moveable if he struggles again. Someone would take a chance on a 6’5, right handed D-man if he had a year remaining on even a $2M cap hit because he still oozes potential. Instead, a quick 48 games on a shortened season later Franson lit up the league and now wants to be paid. The only way the Leafs would have been smart to sign Franson to that deal was if he struggled so that they could have easily cut ties afterwards. Just always seemed like a weird deal to me, and now it’s come back to bite them. The lesson is that you don’t handout one year bridge contracts.
8. Corey Crawford has a career .913sv% in 152 games on what’s been a very good Blackhawks team, is that worth $6M a season for a guy turning 30 when it kicks in? I don’t think so. The crazy thing, though, is looking around at the goalie market and seeing who else makes over $5M- Carey Price (career .915), Cam Ward (consistently hurt), Sergei Bobrovsky (one great year), Mike Smith (up and down career with one amazing season), along with some truly established goalies such as Jonathon Quick, Pekka Rinne, Ryan Miller and Henrik Lundqvist. Goaltending has to be the hardest position to pay for because it’s so up and down and there really are only a handful of consistently elite goalies. When it comes to Crawford specifically I guess my main thought is that I think there are at least 15 other goalies they could have won the Cup with this year, and I don’t think it was a coincidence Ray Emery looked amazing in Chicago, so to me you don’t pay high end money for that. In Chicago’s defense, they don’t have any major players that need contracts until Toews and Kane are both UFAs two years from now.
9. The longer the Derek Stepan contract holdout goes, the more it hurts the Rangers. Considering Ryan Callahan and Carl Hagelin are both out to start the year as they recover from surgeries, the Rangers can’t really afford to not have Stepan either as that’s literally half of their top six gone. Sather’s notoriously a tough negotiator with his own players, but if things really hit the fan Stepan can easily sit back and watch the Rangers struggle without him, Callahan, and Hagelin for at least a month. This seems like the remaining RFA negotiation that could get the ugliest.
10. I didn't think Florida would make the playoffs last year but most people note it as a lack of possession regression and I think that’s a little too simplistic. Weiss and Versteeg, 2/3rds of their top line, were basically out/useless for the year and they lost their second best defenseman Jason Garrison. They also lost their seventh leading scorer Mikael Samuelsson and key grinder Sean Bergenheim didn’t play a game this year, and Theodore was dreadful compared to the playoff season. That's a lot to lose. Who did they replace those key guys with? Filip Kuba, Peter Mueller, Alex Kovalev and Jonathan Huberdeau to start, and other than Huberdeau everyone was pretty bad. 48 games later, Florida looks like they are back to rebuilding. Funny how quickly things change.
11. The second point to Florida’s reversal is that they did nothing to build on their playoff season. Tallon couldn’t have predicted Weiss and Versteeg would be no-shows on the year, but replacing Garrison with Kuba was always going to be a disaster plus he never added quality depth. This is one reason I’ll be interested to see how the Leafs do this year in comparison to the Habs. You can say what you want about the Leafs offseason, but Clarkson is better than MacArthur, Bolland is a more appropriate shutdown center than Grabovski and some youth should stick full-time now in Colborne and Gardiner which will make them better. They should also get good goaltending. The point is that they’ve generated some momentum with their moves and made them to fill their holes and play their style. Conversely, the Habs added an aging Briere, George Parros and an extremely limited Douglas Murray. Montreal still has a good team, but they didn’t really add much to it so I’m curious to see how the contrast in off seasons plays out.
12. Also, the news of Emelin being out until at least Christmas is massive. He was a force on the Habs defense last year and when he was out they looked noticeably softer and their defense really missed his presence. Douglas Murray does nothing to replace him, either. For Montreal’s sake Tinordi better be ready for full-time duty.
13. Last year Carolina had a lot of hype then obviously struggled as a lot of things went wrong. Their defense is still weak, but Sekera helps them as he joins Faulk and Gleason as legit top four defensemen on the team. Ward obviously needs to stay healthy but a healthy Tuomo Ruutu makes a difference and if they sign Brendan Morrow as rumoured, they might even have some depth at forward. I think they will start living up to their promise a bit this year.
14. I remember when the Isles were mocked for promoting Jack Capuano (who the hell is that?!?! Was the general consensus) but man what a job he’s done. Besides the actual team success, how about getting veterans Nabokov and Visnovsky to not only buy into the program but sign extensions, when both vehemently tried to fight going there? He might be the most underrated coach in the league right now.
15. On the note of underrated, I was trying to think of some under the radar media members or bloggers worth reading regularly and kind of blanked. Would appreciate some names or links that are worth checking out beyond the obvious ones. 

Too Long for Twitter

Sometimes 140 characters just isn't enough to put out talking points, so I'm hoping to develop this feature to be almost a weekly thing where I write 15 or so points that I wanted to elaborate on more than Twitter allows without destroying your feed. Hope you enjoy. 

1. Ray Whitney signed with Dallas because they were willing to give him two years while other teams weren't. He threw up 29 points in 32 games last year and though he is pricey at $4.5M, how many teams that need scoring wouldn't want him right now? 
2. It's funny now to think that Phoenix was trying to pry David Krejci out of Boston with a possible Keith Yandle swap not even two years ago in part because the Bruins had young Seguin waiting for a bigger role. So many people talk about sample sizes but hockey decision makers seem to make moves based on very little. 
3. Dug up this old gem from a 30 Thoughts blog in July 2012: "Have to believe that, yes, Toronto's inquired about Jonathan Bernier. Brian Burke isn't doing his job if he doesn't. But there are doubts Burke is incredibly serious about him. Was he serious about Martin Brodeur? Yes. Is he more serious than he lets on about Luongo? Yes. Bernier doesn't really fit Toronto's stated criteria of a veteran in goal." 
4. One other quick Leaf thought: When the Jets drafted Mark Scheifele seventh overall it caught quite a few people off guard (teams were trying to get into the top 15 to draft him, as opposed to the top 10, apparently).  The rationale at the time was that Scheifele was in junior B the year before and had a large development curve. Now, relate that to the Leafs first round pick this year Frederick Gauthier and you see the similarities as a guy who got drafted after his first season in the CHL, except he was coming from AAA midget hockey. I’m not saying Gauthier will develop into a high-end prospect like Scheifele based on a severe learning curve, but to be able to step into the CHL coming off a season at a significantly lower level and play at a high level to be drafted in the first round is impressive. This is how you draft steals.
5. In the old days the NHL used to be all about signing veterans and having the young kids really bide their time. Nowadays, it's completely reversed. Why else are guys like Brenden Morrow, Damien Brunner, Ron Hainsey, Mason Raymond, and so on still unsigned? They all want a little more money because they are proven, and they've all probably maxed out their production rates at this point (maybe not Brunner, but he's the exception here). It seems teams would rather swing for the fences with their own drafted kids.
6. When Detroit acquired Todd Bertuzzi from Florida the Panthers wanted Cory Emmerton but the Wings insisted on Shawn Matthias. I think Detroit did them a favour.
7. Another interesting 30 Thoughts point from the past to read now: "GMs didn't have many complaints with Tyler Myers getting $38 million. "He had 48 points two years ago and 37 in what was supposedly a down year for him [last season]," one said. "You figure he'll get better and in arbitration, that's what those guys get." However, these same GMs would like to see Buffalo stop cutting $10 million cheques for signing bonuses." That contract is ugly right now, to say the least, and we're only seeing more of them getting signed now by younger and younger players (Eberle, Landeskog, even Henrique to a degree). 
8. In that same blog Friedman points out a lesser-known prospect that looked good in the Traverse prospect tournament. His name? Brandon Dillon. If you still don't know who he is, look him up. Was awesome in Dallas last year. 
9. One of the most confusing things of this offseason was San Jose getting serious attention for tracking CORSI to draft CHL players. The Sharks have had exactly one player drafted over the last four drafts (not including this year's for obvious reasons) play an NHL game. One. In fairness, the player (Charlie Coyle) was the only first round pick other than Thomas Hertl so they haven’t been drafting high; Hertl is also expected to make the team this year so there’s that. But one player is still awful. Not one surprise pick late has mustered even one NHL game yet and we’re supposed to be excited/care how they scout players? Results need to be there to justify that and I’ll be very interested to see what this year’s and the next few drafts produce (for the record I think Mueller is going to be solid). If they revolutionize scouting somehow and start churning out NHLers with their picks then this is a different story and I’ll gladly note that. Right now though, it’s just another team using a method that they think is best and it really shouldn’t be that noteworthy.
10. Everyone is talking about how great Detroit looks on paper and I really feel like I’m missing something here. Swapping Brunner, Cleary (for now), and Filppula with Alfredsson and Weiss sure looks great in name value, but actual value? Brunner and Alfredsson actually had the same amount of points last year, but only one of them is rounding into his prime while the other is far past his. Then there’s swapping Filppula with Weiss- Weiss is obviously the better player but he better be healthy and that wrist better be okay because he’s 30 now and just missed a large amount of his last season. At least Filppula is generally healthy, and as the saying goes “stick with the devil you know, not the devil you don’t.” Plus Cleary was a valuable depth guy that I assume they’ll replace internally with Bertuzzi/Samuelsson returning (not sure either is as versatile as Cleary at this point). I guess what I’m saying is that Detroit looks more different as opposed to better to me. I think Detroit will improve because Nyquist, DeKeyser and Tatar are all really good young players more than anything else.
11. Every year when the draft rolls around high profile prospects drop due to stereotypes that most fans roll their eyes at. A few years ago fans were rolling their eyes at Ryan Ellis and then Ryan Murphy dropping because they were studs in the OHL, but were very small defensemen. Ellis is expected to make Nashville this year while Murphy should at least push for a spot on Carolina, but I can’t say I’d be dying to have either prospect in my organization right now. It’s way too early to draw any sort of conclusion on either player, but I always have my eyes on them because their lack of height generated a lot of noise and I’m extremely interested to see how it all unfolds.
12. I have no idea how Finland picks 3/5 of Rask, Rinne, Lehtonen, Niemi and Backstrom to some degree, let alone decide who the starter is going to be. If I had to pick today, I’d go with Rinne, but you can see how unbelievably important getting off to a good start will be for each of these goalies. The separation between the five will literally come down to who is playing hot to start the year and of course, health.
13. Can’t believe team Canada is trying to sell people on their downfall in 2006 as a follow-up to 2002 gold was in part due to being too loyal to the gold medal winning team. Here are the players who played on both squads: Pronger, Sakic, Blake, Foote, Gagne, Iginla, Smyth and Brodeur. Now, do you think the problem was those players, or the fact that the 2006 team had, on international ice, Kris Draper, Shane Doan, Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan McCabe, Robyn Regehr and even big guys that were elite at that time but struggled to move quickly in Lecalvier and Thornton? Canada needs to respect the big ice and the real difference that it is. The players can downplay it all they want (I think they don’t want to admit they aren’t as good as usual on it, personally) but it’s real. What this really means is that players who are unbelievable skaters have to be valued maybe a little higher than they would be on NHL ice and vice versa; that means guys like Taylor Hall, Matt Duchene, and even Brian Campbell should really get pushed to see if they can play with Canada's best. Yeah I think Canada needs to stick to their physical roots, but they need to be able to flat out out-skate teams too.
14. The only RFA contract dispute that I can remember in recent memory that actually got ugly which forced a trade/loss of said RFA was Kyle Turris and Phoenix. However, that marriage was doomed for quite some time before then and Turris was trying to force himself out from the beginning of that contract negotiation by asking for crazy money. If there are similar disputes that I’m misremembering I’ll be happy to hear them, but either way I am enjoying fans freaking out about unsigned RFAs right now.
15. I’m not excited for the prospect tournaments to start just because I want to see the puck drop and some hockey played; I’m genuinely excited to see prospects team together and really battle. It’s a time to show off, to make good impressions, to go all-out. If you are able to watch any prospect tournaments, make sure you do. It’s good hockey. 

What Analytics have shown me, and what I still don't support

Analytics are slowly becoming more accepted in hockey so I thought I’d take some time to write out my own feelings on them; if nothing else it allows me to sort out my thoughts on the matter and grapple with some of the thought processes here.

It hasn’t been a secret that I’ve been pretty against certain “advanced” analytics, but I will admit there are a few things I have come around to and I’ll gladly acknowledge them.

There are two main things that stats can do that I really like: they place the focus on what is important, and they cut through external crap that is not always important like style points, “dressing room qualities,” and a few other things I’ll touch on below at some point.

An example that I think is fairly basic would be Dion Phaneuf on the power play. I watch every single Leaf game once, if not twice, every year and yeah I would agree that Phaneuf does make head-scratching decisions on the power play, gets tunnel vision, and can drive me nuts, but hey guess what? This year he was fifth among defensemen in the entire NHL for points on the power play while last year he was tied for sixth. However, he can’t hit the net? He was tied for fifth among defensemen in goals this season and tied for sixth the year before.  

So yeah, Phaneuf isn’t as agile with the puck as I’d like to see, and he sometimes rips shots that go way over the net, or makes really bad plays, but at the end of the day he is an elite power play option on the point right now yet a lot of people in Toronto act as if he is the black hole of power play’s where pucks go to die.

Overall, the Leafs power play has had the 14^th and 10^th highest conversion percentage the last two seasons too, so it’s been a good overall unit.

That’s a pretty basic “analytic” example, that isn’t really analytical, but to me that’s an instance where you can use numbers to say “hold on a second, the facts are right here and you’re without a doubt wrong.”

When we get into newer numbers such as CORSI, FENWICK, PDO, etc. then things can become a little trickier to use because not everyone values those numbers the same way. That said, there is a time and place to use numbers because our eyes can deceive us, and many of us often have personal biases towards players that we might not even be aware of.

Furthermore, as I alluded to above, analytics try to narrow down what is important and I appreciate that. Now I’m not here to argue that they have found what is important and are properly gathering data toward that- whether they are or aren’t is not my point here. My point is that we tend to look at the things that appeal to us and value them way above what we should be actually valuing.

I’ll stick with Phaneuf here as an example because he is a lightning rod of criticism. A lot of people have remarked to me that he is “not the same guy he was in Calgary” because he isn’t throwing massive checks, he isn’t putting up insane point totals and he isn’t the human highlight reel in general that he once was. 

However, if you look back at his time there, was he playing against top lines while putting up those numbers and making those hits? No; at the very least not regularly, let alone every single game like he does with the Leafs. Is his role to be all offense all the time, or is it to be a shutdown guy that produces when he can, particularly on the power play? Obviously it’s the latter.

Yet people bemoan that he isn’t the “Calgary Phaneuf” even though a top pairing defenseman that can actually play against top lines is substantially more valuable than a second pairing guy who throws big hits and racks up points.

It shouldn’t even take analytics to show us that, but as I said, sometimes we need a narrower focus on what’s really important and analytics can do that for us.

There’s also a third thing that I appreciate analytics for, that I have not mentioned yet, and that is their ability to project point totals over an extended period of time. There are a few stats that can combine to give us this sort of indicator and to me that’s valuable- shooting percentage, PDO, even CORSI and FENWICK and of course scoring opportunities, all show us if a player has been fortunate, whether he produces scoring chances regularly, and if he has the puck in general.

So to me, if I’m thinking of signing a guy to a five year contract for 4.85M per year like the Devils did with a turning 31 year old Ryane Clowe, I’m definitely pulling out my analytic team and asking a few questions such as:

1. What kind of production do we associate with a 4.85M cap hit?
2. Let’s say the answer is 20 goals and 50 points, how viable is it that Clowe produces that in each of the next five years?
3.  When the cap inflates and Clowe’s percentage of cap space taken lowers, what should his new expectations be and is that attainable?
4.  What does he bring beyond simple goals and points that we can associate with value and how much longer is it realistic that he can do that- because in this case we’re talking about his ability to bang bodies, fight, etc.

Those are just some of the questions I’d ask my analytic team, and while I’d by no means expect anything close to 100% accuracy, I’m reasonably confident that these numbers can help paint a pretty good framework for what to expect.

So yes I acknowledge some strengths in analytics in which they can help us project the future, they force us to stick to what’s important and the “facts,” and they cut through biases and can even cut through myths.

However, the above example on Clowe is also how I view analytics in a practical sense. I use my eyes to grade players and I always will. For me, I might look at a player like Clowe –although realistically I’d target someone better and not on the downside of his career, but let’s run with this example—and I’d say okay I think he’s a pretty good player. Clowe does this, this, this, this and this that I really like, and I think these attributes will do this, make this better, help this guy get better, and so on. You get the point.

It’s at that point that I bring analytics into play here and say okay tell me how the stats look here. Odds are with almost any player, especially one that is hitting the free market, that something isn’t right. So then I’d go back to the tape and ask why a certain stat is off and I’d try to see the reasoning behind that.

For instance, most people in Toronto acknowledge that Mikhail Grabovski got buried in a defensive role which is why his offense went down the drain, and I’d agree with that. However, he played over 15 minutes a night, saw steady second unit power play time, shot a high shooting percentage for the third straight year, yet still managed only 16 points on a high scoring team. I mean, every Leaf that played the full 48 games like he did had more points than him, so you have to at least raise an eyebrow to that.

When I watch the tape though, I see a guy who played between Jay McClement and Nikolai Kulemin and they were just offensive anchors for Grabovski. There were a lot of passes he made that bounced off each of their sticks repeatedly, and while Grabovski attempted to jump start the offense on that line McClement and Kulemin were more likely to grind in the corners than create passing plays, shooting lanes and scoring opportunities. As much as I’d look at his stats and say these things can improve if he isn’t starting this much in the D-zone, or playing against top lines all the time, I’d need to see that tape that says “you know what, his skating is still there, he can still beat players one-on-one, he played with some pretty bad offensive players last year –God bless them as they both work so hard, but come on—and I think if we flank him with some talent and play him in some favourable match-ups, he should be able to score for at least the next few years.”

So if I’m a team like the Ducks I’m thinking there’s a very good chance Grabovski will produce well and be an asset to my team if he’s playing between, say, Dustin Penner and Jakob Silfverberg.

But I need to have that video and statistical evidence there. I can’t solely have one or the other.

Now this is the part where people will tell me that “nobody only uses analytics” but that’s just a huge lie. I’ve read more than enough stuff online to confidently say that people definitely write “this guy is good/will be good/should be acquired, kept or whatever, because of this number, this number and this number.” And that’s it. I’m not going to call anyone out, I’m not going to link to anything in particular, but it happens and that’s where analytics lose me at times with a huge eye-roll and a page exit. And I’m not even going to bother discussing the arrogance some analytic-types have which really just turn people off of the matter altogether; I will note I’ve noticed some are making an effort to not be dicks and are generally speaking good guys to talk to and I think that’s awesome.

This further spreads to another point in analytics in which people discuss what teams do and don’t use them. First of all, every team uses them to some degree, let’s not kid ourselves. Beyond that though, I really dislike when people mention teams like Chicago, Boston, Detroit, and Pittsburgh as analytic teams.

The Hawks drafted Toews, Kane, Seabrook, and Keith just to name a few; Boston drafted Bergeron, Lucic, Marchand, and Krejci; Detroit drafted Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall, and I’ll name Lidstrom when they were winning Cups and so on; Do I even need to name who Pittsburgh drafted? I’m sure all of these teams use analytics to supplement that, but naming those teams as primary advocates and shining examples of these methods is such garbage in my opinion because those teams were all primarily built through the draft with elite players either falling in their lap like Pittsburgh, or striking gold like Detroit and Boston.  I don’t think this devalues analytics whatsoever, the point is simply that mentioning these teams that use analytics as proof that they are to be taken seriously is not why I do, nor should it be to be honest.

Editor’s note: I know there are people who say “nobody in hockey actually uses analytics” so people bring up these examples, which I guess is sort of justification to bringing them up, but to that I say show their value and worth, not a patchwork example of usage.

Beyond that there are a few other slight bones I still have to pick.

The first is that I think a lot of people pick and choose their stats to suit their needs at the time. Some people say that goals and assists aren’t important, it’s possession; but when David Clarkson, who is a good possession player, is signed by the Leafs the focus is on his points, or lack thereof, over his career. Do I think Clarkson drove possession? No, that was probably Elias. Do I think Clarkson has a good contract? No. Do I think he is a player that is strong on the cycle and is a good possession player should we look at it in those terms? Yes. If he plays with a good possession driver in Kadri, which seems like the plan, can we expect a good possession line? I think so, and the stats reasonably show that. His goal scoring, at least this year, also can’t be attributed to a high shooting percentage and his PDO says he’s been unlucky if anything. Considering the analytical theme of the year for the Leafs was that they suck at possession, it’s pretty interesting to hear that a player who is actually good at possession will be a bad signing because his point production will drop quickly over the next few years.

A lot of the time people use stats after they have already taken a stance on something and then they go out to prove it. I don’t respect that use of analytics at all. If someone has a question and then they seek out an answer and are open to changing and redoing their research based on issues with their original work, I have all the time in the world for that. Those people work their asses off and love hockey just as much as anyone else and I respect that.

Advanced stats should, at the end of the day, be about getting a player down to one number. In a perfect analytical system we would be able to grade players out to their exact value and then they would be listed in order of the actual best player in the world to the worst, and then the issue would become acquiring them. Considering we have yet to do that in a manner which is representative of a player’s value compared to his counterparts, we can’t consider them law. I say this because it seems so often people value players strictly by their CORSI or fenwick.

When, for example, Ryan O’Byrne came to Toronto he was touted as “the worst player on the worst team” because his possession numbers were bad. Is Andrew Cogliano the best Duck because he had the best CORSI ON on Anaheim? Is Kane one of the worst Hawks because his number was low? This is how you end up thinking Bryan Little is better than John Tavares.

The final thing I’d like to say, and if someone has done work on this I’d appreciate a link showing me, is that I’m surprised I haven’t read much on the margin of error for analytics, how much of the game they are capable of capturing and so on. In other words, if we agree there are intangibles in hockey that can never be measured, whatever they maybe, how much of that is not accounted for in analytics? For example, does analytics equate to say, 60% of the big picture, while everything else equals 40%? How much of the overall picture are analytics giving us?

I do place some importance on things like chemistry, sticking up for each other, having a good dressing room and so on. Now don’t confuse that belief with me valuing those things over good hockey players, because good players are what win you hockey games at the end of the day, but you do need to have both. No company is successful in any walk of life where everyone has to work together yet nobody gets along. That doesn’t happen. So I mean, yeah, that’s a real thing but none of us can judge that from our TVs and computers so it’s not really fair for us to say either way. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist though.

There are countless examples of this kind of stuff either way. I think the Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson line wasn’t amazing because of any chemistry whatsoever, I just think they were three dominant players in their prime all playing together. Whereas I’d look at the line of Fleischmann-Weiss-Versteeg and think the sum was greater than the parts and that they did have chemistry.

Hockey is just a game and sometimes these stats go way overboard in my estimation- adjusting stats based on zone starts and such is just something I’d be hard pressed to ever support because there are so many variables at play there. However, there are also people who completely ignore all stats whatsoever and are truly oblivious to some fantastic information that is openly available. Really, the people that can combine scouting hockey with at least some form of statistical analysis are truly the smartest ones, and that’s what people should be striving to do.

As I said at the top, writing this article has helped me sort out some thoughts on the matter for myself. I’m not interested in having this piece picked apart and “proven wrong,” as they are just my own feelings on the matter. If you have something constructive to say and aren’t a D-bag about the way you come across in doing so I’ll happily listen and am more than open to having a change of heart on a certain matter, if not, I hope this article was still worth your time.

Cheers.

2013 NHL Draft Thoughts

Wasn't the draft we were told we were getting in terms of trades, but it was still exciting nonetheless. Here are some thoughts: 

• Wanted to start by congratulating Colorado on making the right call and drafting MacKinnon. I don’t care how many centers they have, he’s the best player in his draft class and had to go first overall. Now, if they stopped with this Ryan-O’Reilly-to-wing stuff and traded Stastny they’d really be smart.
• I can’t believe Chicago was that hell bent on retaining Bickell, who is more or less a .5ppg player that will play on the top line with Toews and Kane. I like Bickell and think he’s a good serviceable player that is physical and adds a dynamic net presence to any team, but Chicago is tight against the cap pinching pennies so to move out a cheap good player in Frolik to accommodate paying an okay winger 4M/year seems a little odd to me. I’d be willing to bet Bickell is the next Martin Lapointe rather than, I don’t know, the next Andrew Ladd/Nathan Horton/whoever.
• On that note, why did Cal Clutterbuck cost a very good prospect in Nino Neiderreiter, when better third line players Tyler Kennedy and Dave Bolland cost draft picks no higher than second rounders? I like Clutterbuck and think he will be a great fit on the Islanders, but that price makes no sense to me.
• Really like San Jose trying to get deeper, first by adding Torres late during the past season and now Kennedy. GM Doug Wilson has consistently tried to play guys declining in talent or hope for the best on his bottom two lines and it hasn’t worked, so this is refreshing. Some examples include Jeremy Roenick, Scott Gomez, James Sheppard, Benn Ferriero, Ben Eager, and so on.  I don’t like Havlat, and they need to figure out what their plan with Brent Burns is, but the rest of their team is looking very, very, good. Even though they just traded Galiardi, Kennedy is better than him and Tomas Hertl is an impressive young player that I think has a solid chance at being an impact rookie next year.
• I don’t mind Florida taking Barkov one bit. I say this every year- Centers have more of an impact than defenseman generally speaking, and clearly many weren’t positive Jones will be elite. There are very few defensemen in hockey that can actually control the pace of the game, but there are so many centers that can, because of that I actually think the Panthers took less of a risk selecting Barkov rather than Jones. Barkov’s also the youngest player ever to hit 40 points in the top Finnish league.
• The question with Jones for me has always been if he dominates because he’s elite, or does he dominate because he has the elite raw tools. In other words, he’s big, fast and strong, and he can get by on just those three things but in the NHL you need the hockey sense too and that’s what I question here.  If you have elite tools but not the hockey sense, you’re Jack Johnson.
• I think Columbus had a really excellent draft. Wennberg is a good center and those are hard to find, Rychel can score, and Dano has a lot of upside and was one of the best players in the WJC this year in my mind. Near point-per-game Danish winger Oliver Bjorkstrand from WHL champ Portland was a great value pick in the third round.
• Loved Chicago taking Ryan Hartman to end the first round, too. He was the only draft eligible player on WJC champs USA this year; he’s physical, fast and has some scoring touch. Chicago has been a great landing spot for physical players with skill- players like Shaw, Brouwer, Bickell, Bolland and Ladd come to mind.
• Winnipeg had an interesting draft considering their last few years they took guys that are big, strong, two-way players in Scheifele and Trouba early, but this year selected pure skill players in D-man Josh Morrissey and 5’9 forward Nicolas Petan, not to mention J. C Lipon in the third round. They have Evander Kane already on the team along with guys like Enstrom, Ladd, Wheeler and Bogosian, and are putting together a nice little core.
• Also, what’s ever become of Alex Burmistrov’s trade request? Some have rumoured him going to the KHL which would be a shame. He’s already played 194 NHL games and he hasn’t even turned 22 yet. Burmistrov is excellent on the PK and in general is solid defensively, plus he’s 6’1 and will mix it up physically. Teams shouldn’t be lining up for this guy necessarily, but someone should have acquired him by now.
• One of the more underrated things of the weekend was Dallas GM Jim Nill referring to Jamie Benn as a winger. I guess that explains their interest in Weiss and Lecavalier as I assume they would like to put one of those two guys between Benn and Eriksson, and then create a second line of Nichushkin-Whitney-Cole. 
• Speaking of Dallas, I know everybody gives it to Joe Nieuwendyk, but in the next few years I think we’ll look back at some of his final moves and be wowed. He got Cody Eakin to give Washington one year of Mike Ribeiro, and got Kevin Connauton, a second rounder, plus Joe Morrow by giving out not even half seasons of Brendan Morrow and Derek Roy. If these guys pan out, that’s larceny.
• Steal of the draft might be Myles Bell in the 6^th round to the Devils. He was a defenseman last year in his first draft eligible season and put up 41 points in 54 games. He got into an incident I won’t get into that ensured he wouldn’t get drafted, then returned to the WHL, was moved to forward and put up 93 points in 69 games.  Ryan Kujawinski in the third round was also a great pick by the Devils, as I think his stock was hurt because he played on the perennially bad Frontenac’s.
• I’m not a fan of Buffalo drafting Ristolainen and Zadorov with their two first round picks although I commend them for sticking to their board. The bottom line is there’s no way Buffalo went into the drafting hoping to get two defensive defensemen with their first two picks so if they were really determined to stick to their board they should have traded down from their second pick. To Buffalo’s credit, their next three picks were Compher, Hurley and Bailey, all of which are forwards with top six skills and upside. Not many teams can say they came out of this draft with five players that have legitimate possibilities of being high impact players in the league, but Buffalo can.
• I don’t mind a team taking a chance on a guy who is 6’7 like Calgary did with Keenan Kanzig, but in the third round? At the end of the day though, this draft was all about Sean Monahan for Calgary. I think that’s going to be a franchise changing pick.
• For all the deserved Gillis bashing going on about the whole Schneider-Luongo fiasco, I really think this will go down as his best draft as GM of the Canucks. Horvat is a stud two-way center, Shinkaruk can score, Cassels looked very good for Oshawa this year and Subban has talent. There’s a lot of upside in Vancouver’s top four picks.
• How does San Jose justify that moving up two spots in the draft is worth a second round pick? I’ve spoken to a few people that think Micro Mueller might be the second best defenseman in this draft behind Seth Jones, and if he is it will obviously be worth it, but that’s a huge leap of faith. 
• In trading Galiardi, San Jose also has pretty well nothing to show for trading Jamie McGinn, Mike Connolly, and Michael Sgarbossa for Daniel Winnik, a seventh, and TJ Galiardi. McGinn had a bad year but has shown he can be a great utility player that's physical and has some game, and Sgarbossa, who won the OHL scoring race in his last season, had 44 points in 57 AHL games as a rookie this year. Neither are worth just a fourth and seventh, but that's what San Jose has to show for both of them combined. 
• At first I thought the Lecavalier trade was a joke but then I put their forwards together and it actually does make some sense, at least at forward, as I'll just assume Brayden Schenn will be moved to the wing. However, considering they are over the cap, their defense still needs work and they need a goalie. So, I'll reserve complete judgement on that deal until I see what else Holmgren does to get the team under the cap. 

Underrated UFAs

In no particular order, here is a list of UFAs that intrigue me. I think these guys can help good teams in various or specific ways, aren’t being given enough attention, and because of that will come at a bargain most likely.

Forwards

Craig Adams- Although the Penguins penalty kill struggled this year, Craig Adams led all Pittsburgh forwards in shorthanded ice time per game the two previous seasons, and in those years the Penguins were ranked first and third overall. He’s won two cups and is 36 so he’s getting long in the tooth, but he’s a player who knows his role, can help a team create a solid fourth line that can play defense, and he’s a guy the Pens trusted to close out games for them. The Harvard grad is a smart, physical player that can help a lot of teams looking for depth and penalty killing. 

Good Fit: San Jose Sharks- The Sharks use a lot of their best players to kill penalties like Pavelski, Marleau and Couture, so instead it would be nice if they used the roster spots on their bottom two lines to fill them with role players who can play some tough minutes and alleviate their best players of a little defensive pressure. San Jose is a very good team and they're deep, but Adams gives them a solid defensive player who would fit in their physical and fast system. 

Danius Zubrus- Zubrus hurt his wrist this season and only played 22 games; despite scoring nine points in those 22 games, he’s going to fly under the radar. He just turned 35 this year so he’s getting old, but he did have a 44 point season last year so he has some gas left in the tank. At 6’5 Zubrus is one of the biggest forwards in the league and although he’s primarily a winger, he can play some center. The best bottom six forward groups are full of versatile players and that’s what Zubrus is- he can play a little penalty killing, score a little, bring size to the line-up, and cycle the heck out of teams down low. He doesn’t have the mean streak most teams seem to look for, but his size is noticeable out there and he’s capable of dominating shifts in the offensive zone because of it. He would be a good compliment to almost any bottom six in the league.  

Good Fit: Edmonton Oilers- The Oilers are looking for guys who can play hockey to put in their bottom six, and Zubrus can do a bit of everything. His versatility will be welcome there, as to will his contributions on the PK and his ability to cycle the puck well in the oppositions end. Zubrus is still an effective forward and he'd give Edmonton solid and safe minutes. 

Boyd Gordon- Turning 30 this year, only now has Gordon begun to really standout as a defensive monster. He’s one of the best faceoff men in the league –won over 57% of his draw this year—and due to that the Coyotes trusted him with a lot of defensive zone draws and checking duties. He’s only 6’0 so he’s not a big guy, but he’s fast and aggressive and that allows him to play a strong in your face defensive style. At this point in his career he’s a high-end defensive forward and there are few teams who don’t need more defensive forwards- ironically Phoenix is probably one of them.  When Vancouver was at their best in the last few years, a huge part of that was Malhotra’s ability to alleviate the skilled forwards of defensive duties and take them on himself, and Gordon could be the new guy to do that for some team.  

Good Fit: Toronto Maple Leafs- Last year Mikhail Grabovski assumed most of the Leafs defensive responsibilities and he clearly wasn't happy in that role, nor did he thrive in it. Gordon could relieve him of some of those responsibilities and be another good veteran checker add to this team the same way McClement was last year. 

Vinny Prospal- Prospal is another old guy, but unlike most of the veterans listed here he can score.  Since the lockout he has played 559 games and scored 417 points, including leading Columbus in scoring last year with 30 points in 48 games. Teams always seem to look for scoring at the deadline, but here is a veteran who can still score that can be had for free, so I’m curious to see who picks him up. NOTE: He did have some sort of agreement with Columbus to stay with the team and then move into a management role with the old regime, I’m not sure if that’s still true with this management. Frankly, I think Columbus is the best fit for him anyways. 

Good Fit: Columbus Blue Jackets- Prospal is a great fit in Columbus, which is why he should stay. The Jackets are deep with two way players, but struggle to score so he'll always get power play time and be appreciated as long as he continues to score. Columbus is a team on the rise, and Prospal is a good veteran place holder for them until the young kids are ready to score consistently. 

Mason Raymond- Raymond has always been a second-third line tweener, but he’s fast, he can score and he’s only 27. He’s not very physical, he’s not a go-to penalty killer and he doesn’t bring much of what a typical bottom six player brings so where ever he goes it has to be the right situation or else he’s going to be bad. He also hasn’t been quite the same since his vertebrae injury, so whoever signs him will be hoping to put him in a favourable situation and hoping he rebounds.  

Good Fit: Dallas Stars- Dallas has five established forwards: Benn, Whitney, Cole, Eriksson, and Fiddler. One is a grinder, two are old veterans that are still productive, while Benn is a young star and Eriksson is in his prime. The rest of their team is basically young kids. Raymond is a good tweener who is established in this league, can give Dallas some depth and speed, and be a reasonably reliable scorer. When you look at the Stars' roster right now they need NHLers, and Raymond is an above average NHLer. 

Damien Brunner- Brunner finally made his NHL debut this year and he didn’t look out of place. He started the year playing with lockout line mate Henrik Zetterberg and getting power play time on the point with the first unit, and he produced 10 goals in his first 19 games. But his offense dried up after that and he had 2 goals in his last 25 games and he found himself moved down the depth chart due to that. The bottom line is that he’s a skilled player who can add offense and talent to any roster, and he’s only 27 so teams will be interested. Odds are that he stays with Detroit, but if he does hit the market teams will be curious to sign him up and put him on a line with some of their own talented players. 

Good Fit: New Jersey Devils- The Devils are pretty deep down the middle, but have almost no talent on the wing. They struggled to score all year despite dominating most of their games, and anyone with talent is basically welcome on their team. Brunner will probably resign in Detroit which is a great call, but if he does hit the open market New Jersey is a great option for him because they are a good team that will rely on him to score and give him plenty of opportunities to do so. 

Michael Ryder- Ryder has a lot of warts to his game as he isn’t overly strong defensively or physical, but there’s one thing he can do and that’s score. He turned 33 this year and although he’s been riding high shooting percentages the last few years, he’s always been a bit of a one-shot scorer and at the very least should be good for 20 goals. Ryder was great for Boston in his second line-third line tweener role, and there were a lot of good teams this year in the playoffs that were struggling to score. A veteran with a Cup ring, Ryder could help a lot of teams. 

Good Fit: Ottawa Senators- Whether Alfredsson returns or not this team needs scoring help and Ryder is a one shot scorer. The UFA market is pretty limited when it comes to scoring options and Ryder will hopefully come relatively cheap for the production he brings. Ottawa is a young team and a veteran scorer would be welcomed with open arms to their team. 

Clarke MacArthur- MacArthur is a pretty underrated player which is surprising considering he plays for the Leafs, but here we are. He has a great shot, is a legitimate 20 goal scorer at this point, has some speed and isn't completely terrible defensively. He’s 28 and he’s pretty established as a solid scorer, which is as good as it gets in the second tier of free agency nowadays. If a team gives him some responsibilities and puts him in as a legitimate top six forward for the full year, I think there will be more payoff than regret in the long run. 

Good Fit: Nashville Predators- After Hornqvist and Kostitsyn, Nashville has almost no skill along the wings, and a 20 goal scorer like MacArthur would add a great infusion of skill. Nashville basically needs any offense it can get at this point, and he's also young enough to grow with the team as they seem to be getting younger right now and going through a pretty quick on the fly rebuild. 

Derek Roy- If Roy was a UFA two seasons ago he would be as sought after as anyone on the market right now. That year he had 35 points in 35 games before getting hurt. The following season Roy returned to put up 44 points in 80 games as it clearly took him time to recover from his injury. This season he got traded to Dallas and put up 22 points in 30 games, a 60 point pace, before getting traded to the mess in Vancouver. Roy is only 30 and while he hasn’t been as aggressive or speedy as he once was, he still has game, he can still create offense, he still has a great shot and he can QB a power play from the point. There are a lot of teams that need help down the middle, and Roy is still a good center capable of producing. If expectations are reasonable, he’ll produce. 

Good Fit: Phoenix Coyotes- Phoenix has an excellent shutdown center in Hanzal, and a solid two-way center in Vermette, so adding an offensive minded guy like Roy to round out that trio just seems extremely obvious. Signing Roy would finally allow a guy like Vrbata or Boedker to play with an offense-first center with a ton of talent. 

Matt Cullen- Cullen’s 37 and his career is winding down, so he’s not the excellent 3C and power play specialist he once was, but he’s still effective. Cullen’s great in the faceoff circle, good in the shootout, still produces offense, and he can play against other teams third lines adequately. He’s not a checking center, but he has a two-way game and if he’s put in favourable match-ups he’ll easily come out ahead. Good Fit: Winnipeg Jets- The Jets have Jokinen, Little, Scheifele and Slater down the middle so Cullen isn't an obvious fit here, but Jokinen is turning out to be a dud, and Slater provides no offense whatsoever, so that would put a lot of pressure on Scheifele in his first year. Cullen is able to score and really if they just buyout Jokinen that's the actual ideal thing to do here. Even if they don't Cullen still helps them and if they still suck, he'll be a guy teams will be interested in at the deadline. 

Jeff Halpern- He’s only a fourth liner, but he’s a good one. Halpern can still win faceoffs, he can still kill penalties, he can still grind and give you safe minutes, and he’s right handed. He can play center and the wing, he has some ability if he’s not put in a pure defensive fourth line role and he’s an overall good veteran. When I look around at some of the junk teams deploy on their fourth lines and then see a guy like Jeff Halpern hit free agency, I sincerely hopes he gets signed.  

Good Fit: Buffalo Sabres- To say it bluntly: Buffalo has a lot of goofs on their team, and their penalty kill sucks, which is about as bad a combination as there is in hockey. The fact that Halpern can play wing really helps them out because Buffalo is pretty solid down the middle. They're a young team in transition so signing a veteran could be strange, but Halpern will help smooth out some of the rough patches and like Cullen they could probably trade him for a pick if the season goes down the tank.

 Defensemen

Grant Clitsome- Clitsome is a relatively young defenseman at 28 years old who has shown he is capable of playing nearly 20 minutes a night. He has 55 points in 149 career games so far, because he thinks the game well and makes a good first pass. Clitsome is small at 5’11, but he does try to play physical and he’s listed at 215 pounds so he’s thick. If teams are looking for a desperate, cheap, potential top 4 option he might be able to fill it. More than likely, he can be a very solid third pairing guy who can play in the top four once and awhile.  

Good Fit: Tampa Bay Lightning- The Bolts defense has some pieces now in Carle and Hedman, but they still need work. Clitsome isn't the true top four guy that they need, but he will make their defense better and he's a good compliment to all the skill Tampa has up front. They are right up against the cap so they'd need to clear space to make this move, but he would help them.  

Mike Lundin- Lundin has been injured the last few years, but to me he’s the wildcard of this entire free agent class. He’s 28 years old and was once in the young stars game, but injuries have hit him hard the last few years causing him to play only 28 games the last two season. The year before that he was playing for Tampa Bay the year they made the Eastern Conference final and he was third on the team in ice time per game at 20:24 during the regular season. Lundin plays a no-thrills game, but he can outlet the puck out of the zone and he has great defensive awareness. Starting him on your third pairing and seeing if he can find his game again isn’t a terrible idea. 

Good Fit: Washington Capitals- Washington is more or less set at defense but Schultz wants out and they have three really good defensemen, and then three okay at best guys. If Lundin can ever stay healthy and regain his form, he'd be a great fit in Washington. The Caps are deep enough on defense that if he doesn't pan out it's not a big deal, but if he does he will help Washington. 

Jordie Benn- Benn had his first extended stay in the NHL this year and didn’t look out of place. He’s 6’1, has some skill, can skate, and was able to handle his own against third lines although he was overwhelmed against top six forwards. When you consider that he’s only 25 and he hasn’t even played a full year in the NHL, you have to account for the fact that there’s room for his game to grow. He had 53 points in his last 105 AHL games so he does have some skill. If teams are looking for cheap, young defensemen to fill out their defense –basically every team in the league—then he should be looked at. Good Fit: Dallas Stars- Like Prospal, Benn is in a good spot and should stay there. Besides the fact that his brother is on Dallas, the Stars are a team in transition and welcoming a ton of young guys on the team, particularly at defense, so that means ice time is up for grabs and there will be lots of opportunity. That's the ideal for a still relatively young defenseman breaking into the league. 

Toni Lydman- Lydman used to be a full time top four defenseman that would put up over 20 points a year, but now he’s starting to see his ice time hover around 19 minutes a game and he struggles to put up any points whatsoever. Last year the Hawks picked up a solid veteran defenseman who doesn’t play flashy hockey in Michal Rozsival, and he ended up playing huge minutes for the Hawks in their Cup run. Lydman can give a team solid minutes and help make a defense better, yet for some reason that seems to be an under-appreciated thing around the league as teams are always looking for points, or big hits, or whatever. 

Good Fit: Minnesota Wild- The Wild defense simply isn't very good and isn't very experienced, so adding a solid veteran like Lydman will help solidify it. Playing the reliable left-handed Lydman with the up and coming righty Spurgeon is appealing when you consider their top pairing is already set in stone with Brodin and Suter, plus then they'd have Gilbert to anchor their other pairing. The Wild have tried out a ton of unimpressive young guys on defense, so I think it's time they look at adding a good veteran who can get the job done. 

Andrew Ference- Ference is 34 years old and when you combine his regular season and playoff games, he’s played 880 games so he has quite a bit of mileage on him. Ference was Boston’s fourth defenseman this year, but to me he’s ideally suited to be a fifth defenseman at this point of his career. He’s not the rock he once was, but he can still give a team good minutes, he’s a good veteran, he plays with an edge, and he’s a good player to pair a young kid with on a third pairing. 

Good Fit: Carolina Hurricanes- Carolina desperately needs defense help and while Ference isn't the top four guy they need, he will help stabilize the second half of their defense and as a lefty would be a good option to play with a righty like McBain or Ryan Murphy, or even just Jay Harrison. 

Ben Lovejoy- Lovejoy is surprisingly 29 years old, so whoever signs him isn’t banking on potential anymore. At this point he is what he is- a solid defenseman with size at 6’2 that is a smooth skater, not very physical, but can give a team a solid 17 or so minutes a night and maybe play on the second power play unit. He’s also right handed which I consider a huge advantage because there are less right handed D-men then lefties, and he’s a solid player you can trust if his assignments are reasonable. In the playoffs he actually moved into Anaheim’s top four and handled himself very well. To me, Lovejoy is the perfect kind of depth defenseman because he’s old enough that you feel no pressure to play him compared to a prospect, and you can trust him. 

Good Fit: Florida Panthers- Their defensemen are either really young or really old and while they do have some young guys that might crack the team soon, they will still have holes to fill because Jovanovski can't stay healthy and Kuba will be gone sooner than later, so Lovejoy can actually get ice time in Florida and give them some solid minutes.  

Goalies

Anton Khudobin- Look, I’m not going to pretend that I understand goaltending because I don’t, but Khudobin has a .933sv% in 21 NHL games, and a .912sv% in 156 AHL games that was .920% in his last 60 games. He’s 27 years old, he’s small but lightning quick, and his numbers are fantastic. These are the type of goalies teams should be taking chances on.

Good Fit: Winnipeg Jets- Pavelec is their guy long-term, but he hasn't had any real competition for the net, whereas Khudobin might be able to steal starts from Pavelec and give Winnipeg better goaltending than they've received. 

Jason LaBarbera- In his last four years his save percentages have been: .923%, .912%, .909%, .928%. LaBarbera is 33 and is a true backup, but he’s a solid one. If you have a full-time starter who can give you 60+ starts, this is the kind of guy you want playing the other 20 or so games. 

Good Fit: Boston Bruins- If current Bruins UFA backup Khudobin is smart he'll go to a team with a better chance at getting starts, like the one I mentioned above, if that's the case Boston will need a new backup and LaBarbera is a true pro's backup and will be a solid relief guy for Rask. 

Jose Theodore- Florida’s entire team sucked this year, but in Theodore’s previous three years he had save percentages of .917%, .916% and .911. I don’t think he’s a pure backup, but he’s a guy who is great insurance for a spotty starter or goalie who gets hurt a lot. 

Good Fit: Carolina Hurricanes- Obviously Cam Ward is their guy but he has missed significant time two of the last four years so Carolina needs better insurance and to lessen his workload. Theodore could give Carolina an excellent 30-some odd games so that Ward can stay rested and Carolina wont be screwed if Ward does get hurt again. 

Thomas Greiss- Greiss is 6’1 and has a career .912sv% in 44 career NHL games. That’s about league average goaltending, but at 27 he’s reaching the age that many goalies start to take off in their careers. Putting Greiss in a situation where he has the potential, but not guarantee, to get a lot of starts could prove best for everyone involved. 

Good Fit: Chicago Blackhawks- The Hawks should lose Emery so they'll need a replacement. Crawford is obviously their guy but they'll need a good backup because he and Emery almost split starts down the middle this year. Greiss still has untapped potential and can give the Hawks more than spot duty good goaltending.